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Wednesday, February 9, 2011

@ Donner Party

<Problem>
¢ Who were the survivors?
¢ How could they survive?
¢ What was difference between the lived and the died?
¢ Why did the young bachelors all die?
¢ Did the dead men really die naturally? 

< Hypothesis >
¢Correlation between Family and survive(◎ ) 
    ▶ Most of  4 families are survived
    ▶ mutual  protection ?
    ▶ The bachelors might have been killed?
¢Correlation between gender and survive( ○ )
    ▶ 2/3  Women survived…2/3 Men died
    ▶ Protection by men ?
    ▶ Women could avoid being killed?
¢Correlation between age  and survive  ( △ )
    ▶ 4 girls and 4 boys, aged 3 and under,  died
    ▶ 6 boys, aged 4~16, died
    ▶ 2 girls, aged 4~16, survived
    ▶ Some of boys might have been killed?
¢Possibility of collusion ?
   ▶ 4 fathers of families survived.
   ▶ Why did young healthy bachelors die?
   ▶ But, Why were the dead-time s different?

<Methodology>  
¢Using the database provided
¢Sorting the data
¢Assumption about the situation
¢Exclusion  illogical  assumptions
¢Restructuring the assumptions
¢Discussion &  tentative conclusion


<Result> - attached table


<Hypothetic Conclusion>  
☞ They ate the only dead bodies at the first time
☞ They might have colluded to kill
☞ Victims mainly were children and the old
☞ They might have evaded to kill families   
☞ Young bachelors might have participated
      the  collusion at the first time.
☞ But, most of them might have become victims  
      later  
Some of them were dead naturally.  (exception)

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